Week 2 of the college football season provided some fireworks that have shifted the playoff picture significantly from Week 1.
- Each of the four power conference champions (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) receives an automatic bid.
- The highest-ranked team from the Group of Six conferences (American, Sun Belt, MAC, Pac-12, Mountain West, C-USA) receives an automatic bid, regardless of whether or not they won the conference championship.
- The next seven highest-ranked teams receive an at-large bid.
My projected field after Week 2:
- P4 Champions: Ohio State, LSU, Miami, Utah
- G6 Leader: Boise State
- At-Large Teams: Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Alabama, BYU, Ole Miss
- Outside Looking In: USC, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Penn State, SMU, Tennessee
Some notes from Week 2:
- I have Oregon completely out of the picture after a dismal performance against Oklahoma State. While the close win over Boise State could have been written off as a fluke, the Ducks were outgained 554-281 against the Cowboys, including 237-90 on the ground. Dan Lanning’s squad showed up unprepared to play football against a less talented team for the second straight week. A loss like this likely means the Ducks must beat both Ohio State and USC to make the playoff, and with both of those games away from Eugene, that looks to be a slim possibility. Dare I say Oregon is this year’s version of 2025 Penn State?
- Oklahoma is also out of the picture. Michigan is clearly better than they showed against Western Michigan, but Oklahoma could not afford to take a loss there with the remaining schedule they have. The Sooners have four games remaining against teams currently in the AP Top 10, plus road games against Florida and Missouri. I do not like their chances.
- Utah is my new projected Big 12 champion after a dominant 43-10 win over Arkansas. The Utes have a favorable schedule, and defending conference champion Texas Tech has looked very sketchy to start the season. The Red Raiders host Houston on Friday night, and a win could bump them back into the field.
- Ohio State had a historic meltdown in the fourth quarter against Texas, but I still think the Buckeyes are ahead of the rest of the Big Ten for now. Indiana is 2-0, but the defending national champions have not been tested yet.
- USC is the first team out after a 3-0 start. The defensive depth has been questionable, but the Trojans have quietly moved near playoff position. They should handle Rutgers on the road this week, and then USC will have its litmus test against Oregon on September 26.
- SMU faces Louisville on the road this Saturday. The Mustangs already have one road conference win in their back pockets, albeit against a struggling Florida State team. If Rhett Lashlee’s squad can pull out a win over Louisville for the third straight year, they have a good chance of being in the playoff conversation in November. After this weekend, six of SMU’s next seven games are at home.
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